BETON Agent — System Status & Calibration
This is the first public status update for the BETON Agent prediction engine.
Verified performance (as of mid-July 2026)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Backtest accuracy (overall) | 66.4% |
| Backtest vs Pinnacle | 70.2% (Pinnacle: 61.7%) |
| Elite tier win rate | 75% |
| Elite tier ROI | +18.6% |
| CLV vs Pinnacle (mean) | +7.91% |
| Top leagues | Bulgaria NBL, Romania, Norway, Spain Primera FEB, Greece |
What the system runs
- ELO rating system — learns from every result.
- Monte Carlo simulations — explore possible outcomes for every match.
- Team statistics — measure playing style, pace and matchups.
- News scout — 24/7 monitoring of injuries, coach changes and transfers.
These independent views are combined into a single probability, then compared to the market's consensus. When the gap is meaningful, the signal qualifies.
Next steps
More updates will be posted here as the season approaches — new modules, calibration runs and updated metrics. Read our methodology and case studies in the Research section.
— MrLongBG
